Eagles (+11.5) at Broncos: Peyton Manning is the best QB in the NFL and Dinver has been one of the two dominant teams this year (Seattle being the other). The Broncos are averaging over 42 points per game. The defense has been solid so far. They've played well enough to get a lead and then Manning takes over in the second half. The Eagles have been the model of inconsistency but they are averaging 462 yards per game, 2nd in the NFL behind on Dinver. They lost last second to San Diego (who could very easily be 3-0) and they turned it over 5 times vs KC (who is 3-0) last Thursdee. Thursdee games are always sloppy, so I'm throwing that game out. This team is very dangerous and they will easily be the biggest test that Dinver has faced. I'm expecting a crazy shootout. Add in Philly's extra rest and Dinver playing on short rest in the thin air for the second game in a row, and I'm taking the points.
Broncos 38 Eagles 36 (Philadelphia +11.5)
Patriots (+2.5) at Falcons: Both of these teams have struggled so far, even though the Patriots are 3-0. The Patriots have become a team that is reliant on their run game, short passing game, and defense. Atlanta has lost 2 games to teams that are a combined 6-0, so you can't entirely fault them for their 1-2 record. I'm envisioning a close game but not with all the points that most are expecting. New England is ahead of only Jacksonville in YPA and they should have difficulty running against Atlanta's 5th ranked run defense. Atlanta will be without Steven Jackson and Roddy White has been invisible this year. Without Jackson, they can put drives together but will struggle to put the ball in the end zone against New England. Add in New England's 4th ranked YPA defense and I see Atlanta's big plays coming to a minimum.
Falcons 20 Patriots 17 (Under 51.5)
The Rest of Week 4 (21-17-1)
49ers (-3.5) at Rams: Both of these teams have looked really bad the past few weeks. I have no idea what to expect here other than it will probably be a low scoring game. Since the line is higher than 3, I'll take the points.
49ers 20 Rams 17
Steelers (-2.5) vs Vikings: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Steelers 17 Vikings 14
Ravens (-3) at Bills: The Ravens seem to have got going the past 6 quarters after struggling the first 6 quarters of the young season. For that reason I'm backing them. And the fact that Buffalo just gave up 513 yards to the Jets.
Ravens 24 Bills 19
Bengals (-4.5) at Browns: The Bengals are 2-1 but they really haven't looked that great. Dalton is mediocre and I fear that he will hold them back from being a legit contender. The Browns played an inspirational game last week and hope to keep it going this week. I would be tempted to back Cincy here, but they just came off an emotional win last week and they play New England next week. This is the definition of a sandwich game. Cleveland pulls it out in the Dog Pound.
Browns 17 Bengals 14
Colts (-9.5) at Jaguars: The Colts look like they are a physical team for the first time since I can ever remember. Both sides of the ball are playing well. The Jags are really, really bad. I don't think they will get totally embarrassed as Indy could have a letdown and they could be looking ahead to Seattle next week. Indy covers by a slight margin.
Colts 28 Jaguars 17
Seahawks (-3) at Texans: Seattle is the hottest team in the NFL. They are tops in the NFL in offensive yards per passing attempt (YPA), defensive YPA, defensive QB rating and second in offensive QB rating. They've been on a tear since the middle of the year last year. Houston has not been the same team ever since their bye last year. Houston's losses in that time have come by 18, 28, 17, 12, 13, and 21 points. I don't think Schaub is a good QB and he should struggle mightily against the most dominating defense in the NFL. Seattle has yet to give up 266 total yards in a game. Houston seems to feast on bad QB, but the good QB have done well against them since last year. In games vs Manning, Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, and Brady again, Houston gave up 36.2 points per game. Russell Wilson may not be quite in that class, but he does currently own the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL. These are two teams heading in opposite directions. This was almost an Investment, but Houston's ability to stop the run and the fact that Seattle's offense tends to struggle much more on the road scared me off.
Texans 24 Seahawks 17***
Cardinals (+2.5) at Buccaneers: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Buccaneers 23 Cardinals 19
Bears (+2.5) at Lions: Are these two teams the class of the NFC North? It is quite possible. Both teams seem to have above average offenses and defenses. I'm still skeptical of the Bears though and Charles Tillman is banged up. If he doesn't play, Megatron will either have a monster game or demand double teams and open up the game for the other receivers on the team. Both offenses should have fun in this game.
Lions 34 Bears 24
Giants (+5) at Chiefs: The Giants can't be this bad, can they? I didn't like them before the season but they are still decent. After hitting Rock Bottom last week, I expect them to play much better this week. KC has been a pleasant surprise. The D has been awesome and carried them to a 3-0 record. This is more of a gut call. Eli has a big game and Allie struggles.
Chiefs 27 Giants 14
Jets (+4) at Titans: Guess which two teams in the NFL have yet to turn the ball over. Kansas City and... Kansas City and... Littering and... You guessed it, the Tennessee Titans! Well, I was shocked when I saw that stat. Both of these teams have been surprises this year. I think they could both be average if they continue to play this way. The Jets have turned the ball over too much so far for me to pick this upset, but I'll still take them with the points.
Titans 20 Jets 17
Cowboys (-2) at Chargers: I'm a Tony Romo Guy. I'm not a Butthole Rivers Guy.
Cowboys 30 Chargers 20
Redskins (-3.5) at Raiders: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Redskins 28 Raiders 24
Dolphins (+6.5) at Saints: Two 3-0 teams playing Mondee night? Gruden is going to be a happy, happy boy. Miami is giving up 53 yards more than their offense is gaining and they are only +2 in turnovers. That doesn't have the look of a 3-0 team. The Saints offense is starting to click and Miami DE Cameron Wake isn't playing. Miami will put up a good showing but come up short at the end.
Saints 26 Dolphins 20
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