Saturday, September 28, 2013
Patriots/Falcons Total
I'm officially investing in the UNDER between New England and Atlanta. The number is currently at 51.5 and I officially made it a play on the Week 4 pick post.
Week 4 Prediction Changes
After seeing the injuries that have taken place on the offensive lines in Seattle and New York, I changed my Seahawks-Texans prediction and my Giants-Chiefs prediction. I've heard tons of things about Gronkowski and Amendola, so I'm still waiting on that Under.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Week 4
My Investments (4-3-1)
Eagles (+11.5) at Broncos: Peyton Manning is the best QB in the NFL and Dinver has been one of the two dominant teams this year (Seattle being the other). The Broncos are averaging over 42 points per game. The defense has been solid so far. They've played well enough to get a lead and then Manning takes over in the second half. The Eagles have been the model of inconsistency but they are averaging 462 yards per game, 2nd in the NFL behind on Dinver. They lost last second to San Diego (who could very easily be 3-0) and they turned it over 5 times vs KC (who is 3-0) last Thursdee. Thursdee games are always sloppy, so I'm throwing that game out. This team is very dangerous and they will easily be the biggest test that Dinver has faced. I'm expecting a crazy shootout. Add in Philly's extra rest and Dinver playing on short rest in the thin air for the second game in a row, and I'm taking the points.
Broncos 38 Eagles 36 (Philadelphia +11.5)
Patriots (+2.5) at Falcons: Both of these teams have struggled so far, even though the Patriots are 3-0. The Patriots have become a team that is reliant on their run game, short passing game, and defense. Atlanta has lost 2 games to teams that are a combined 6-0, so you can't entirely fault them for their 1-2 record. I'm envisioning a close game but not with all the points that most are expecting. New England is ahead of only Jacksonville in YPA and they should have difficulty running against Atlanta's 5th ranked run defense. Atlanta will be without Steven Jackson and Roddy White has been invisible this year. Without Jackson, they can put drives together but will struggle to put the ball in the end zone against New England. Add in New England's 4th ranked YPA defense and I see Atlanta's big plays coming to a minimum.
Falcons 20 Patriots 17 (Under 51.5)
The Rest of Week 4 (21-17-1)
49ers (-3.5) at Rams: Both of these teams have looked really bad the past few weeks. I have no idea what to expect here other than it will probably be a low scoring game. Since the line is higher than 3, I'll take the points.
49ers 20 Rams 17
Steelers (-2.5) vs Vikings: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Steelers 17 Vikings 14
Ravens (-3) at Bills: The Ravens seem to have got going the past 6 quarters after struggling the first 6 quarters of the young season. For that reason I'm backing them. And the fact that Buffalo just gave up 513 yards to the Jets.
Ravens 24 Bills 19
Bengals (-4.5) at Browns: The Bengals are 2-1 but they really haven't looked that great. Dalton is mediocre and I fear that he will hold them back from being a legit contender. The Browns played an inspirational game last week and hope to keep it going this week. I would be tempted to back Cincy here, but they just came off an emotional win last week and they play New England next week. This is the definition of a sandwich game. Cleveland pulls it out in the Dog Pound.
Browns 17 Bengals 14
Colts (-9.5) at Jaguars: The Colts look like they are a physical team for the first time since I can ever remember. Both sides of the ball are playing well. The Jags are really, really bad. I don't think they will get totally embarrassed as Indy could have a letdown and they could be looking ahead to Seattle next week. Indy covers by a slight margin.
Colts 28 Jaguars 17
Eagles (+11.5) at Broncos: Peyton Manning is the best QB in the NFL and Dinver has been one of the two dominant teams this year (Seattle being the other). The Broncos are averaging over 42 points per game. The defense has been solid so far. They've played well enough to get a lead and then Manning takes over in the second half. The Eagles have been the model of inconsistency but they are averaging 462 yards per game, 2nd in the NFL behind on Dinver. They lost last second to San Diego (who could very easily be 3-0) and they turned it over 5 times vs KC (who is 3-0) last Thursdee. Thursdee games are always sloppy, so I'm throwing that game out. This team is very dangerous and they will easily be the biggest test that Dinver has faced. I'm expecting a crazy shootout. Add in Philly's extra rest and Dinver playing on short rest in the thin air for the second game in a row, and I'm taking the points.
Broncos 38 Eagles 36 (Philadelphia +11.5)
Patriots (+2.5) at Falcons: Both of these teams have struggled so far, even though the Patriots are 3-0. The Patriots have become a team that is reliant on their run game, short passing game, and defense. Atlanta has lost 2 games to teams that are a combined 6-0, so you can't entirely fault them for their 1-2 record. I'm envisioning a close game but not with all the points that most are expecting. New England is ahead of only Jacksonville in YPA and they should have difficulty running against Atlanta's 5th ranked run defense. Atlanta will be without Steven Jackson and Roddy White has been invisible this year. Without Jackson, they can put drives together but will struggle to put the ball in the end zone against New England. Add in New England's 4th ranked YPA defense and I see Atlanta's big plays coming to a minimum.
Falcons 20 Patriots 17 (Under 51.5)
The Rest of Week 4 (21-17-1)
49ers (-3.5) at Rams: Both of these teams have looked really bad the past few weeks. I have no idea what to expect here other than it will probably be a low scoring game. Since the line is higher than 3, I'll take the points.
49ers 20 Rams 17
Steelers (-2.5) vs Vikings: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Steelers 17 Vikings 14
Ravens (-3) at Bills: The Ravens seem to have got going the past 6 quarters after struggling the first 6 quarters of the young season. For that reason I'm backing them. And the fact that Buffalo just gave up 513 yards to the Jets.
Ravens 24 Bills 19
Bengals (-4.5) at Browns: The Bengals are 2-1 but they really haven't looked that great. Dalton is mediocre and I fear that he will hold them back from being a legit contender. The Browns played an inspirational game last week and hope to keep it going this week. I would be tempted to back Cincy here, but they just came off an emotional win last week and they play New England next week. This is the definition of a sandwich game. Cleveland pulls it out in the Dog Pound.
Browns 17 Bengals 14
Colts (-9.5) at Jaguars: The Colts look like they are a physical team for the first time since I can ever remember. Both sides of the ball are playing well. The Jags are really, really bad. I don't think they will get totally embarrassed as Indy could have a letdown and they could be looking ahead to Seattle next week. Indy covers by a slight margin.
Colts 28 Jaguars 17
Seahawks (-3) at Texans: Seattle is the hottest team in the NFL. They are tops in the NFL in offensive yards per passing attempt (YPA), defensive YPA, defensive QB rating and second in offensive QB rating. They've been on a tear since the middle of the year last year. Houston has not been the same team ever since their bye last year. Houston's losses in that time have come by 18, 28, 17, 12, 13, and 21 points. I don't think Schaub is a good QB and he should struggle mightily against the most dominating defense in the NFL. Seattle has yet to give up 266 total yards in a game. Houston seems to feast on bad QB, but the good QB have done well against them since last year. In games vs Manning, Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, and Brady again, Houston gave up 36.2 points per game. Russell Wilson may not be quite in that class, but he does currently own the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL. These are two teams heading in opposite directions. This was almost an Investment, but Houston's ability to stop the run and the fact that Seattle's offense tends to struggle much more on the road scared me off.
Texans 24 Seahawks 17***
Cardinals (+2.5) at Buccaneers: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Buccaneers 23 Cardinals 19
Bears (+2.5) at Lions: Are these two teams the class of the NFC North? It is quite possible. Both teams seem to have above average offenses and defenses. I'm still skeptical of the Bears though and Charles Tillman is banged up. If he doesn't play, Megatron will either have a monster game or demand double teams and open up the game for the other receivers on the team. Both offenses should have fun in this game.
Lions 34 Bears 24
Giants (+5) at Chiefs: The Giants can't be this bad, can they? I didn't like them before the season but they are still decent. After hitting Rock Bottom last week, I expect them to play much better this week. KC has been a pleasant surprise. The D has been awesome and carried them to a 3-0 record. This is more of a gut call. Eli has a big game and Allie struggles.
Chiefs 27 Giants 14
Jets (+4) at Titans: Guess which two teams in the NFL have yet to turn the ball over. Kansas City and... Kansas City and... Littering and... You guessed it, the Tennessee Titans! Well, I was shocked when I saw that stat. Both of these teams have been surprises this year. I think they could both be average if they continue to play this way. The Jets have turned the ball over too much so far for me to pick this upset, but I'll still take them with the points.
Titans 20 Jets 17
Cowboys (-2) at Chargers: I'm a Tony Romo Guy. I'm not a Butthole Rivers Guy.
Cowboys 30 Chargers 20
Redskins (-3.5) at Raiders: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Redskins 28 Raiders 24
Dolphins (+6.5) at Saints: Two 3-0 teams playing Mondee night? Gruden is going to be a happy, happy boy. Miami is giving up 53 yards more than their offense is gaining and they are only +2 in turnovers. That doesn't have the look of a 3-0 team. The Saints offense is starting to click and Miami DE Cameron Wake isn't playing. Miami will put up a good showing but come up short at the end.
Saints 26 Dolphins 20
Week 3 results/Week 4 early looks
Week 3 was a positive week. My Investments are now 3-2-1. Getting good lines is a huge key. I saw Oakland at anywhere between +14.5 to +16.5. I got a push at +16. I had a game Week 2 that was a push instead of a loss. Ideally, I'd pick games that cover the spread by 10+, but that's usually not the way the NFL goes.
My other picks went 7-6, which brings that total to 21-17-1. I'm not investing in those games, but it's nice to see that I would be up if I had.
Week 4 Thoughts:
49ers (-4) at Rams: This spread is in the middle of where I want it. If I could get Rams +7 or more, I like them and if I could get 49ers -3 or less, I'd like them. Probably a no play. Both teams have looked bad the past two weeks.
Steelers (-2.5) vs Vikings: Are these teams really this bad? Maybe. I'd favor Roethlisberger over Ponder, but Pitt can't run the ball.
Ravens (-3.5) at Bills: I didn't like Baldimore before the year and Buffalo has played decently well. I'd lean towards Buffalo.
Bengals (-5) at Browns: Cincy has been inconsistent and Cleveland played their hearts out last week. This could be a trap game for Cincy after beating Green Bay and with New England on deck.
Colts (-9.5) at Jaguars: Colts look legit but 9.5 is a lot. However, I wouldn't bet Jacksonville without getting 14.
Seahawks (-3) at Texans: Seattle historically hasn't traveled well but they look like a team on a mission. Houston has struggled since the middle of last season. It looks like two teams headed in opposite directions.
Cardinals (+2.5) at Buccaneers: Finally a home favorite! Two inconsistent teams. Probably a pass for me but I do expect Tampa Bay to win behind a QB that Schiano actually supports.
Bears (+2.5) at Lions: Lots of points. Charles Tillman is banged up and might miss the game. Megatron could go nuts if Peanut isn't playing. Bears offense has done just enough to win. I'm still suspect of them.
Giants (+5) at Chiefs: Giants hit Rock Bottom last week so they should respond. KC is 3-0 but they've relied on turnovers so far. Will it continue? Alex Smith sucks.
Jets (+4) at Titans: These teams could actually finish near .500 or better. Should be a good game.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Chargers: Dallas will have to show me that they can win on the road before I invest in them. However, I'm not investing in Phillip "Butthole" Rivers.
Redskins (-3.5) at Raiders: Skins have played 3 very good offenses and have gotten smoked. Can they respond against a below average offense? Raiders are a weird team. Probably a pass.
Eagles (+11.5) at Broncos: Philly can score and Dinver's D is very average. On the other hand, Manning should be able to do whatever he wants against Philly's D. Eagles get 10 days to get ready for this and Dinver only gets 6 days.
Patriots (+2.5) at Falcons: Pats getting points? That doesn't happen very often. I'd like to take Atlanta but they have tons of injuries. Should be an interesting game.
Dolphins (+6.5) at Saints: Two 3-0 teams and the line is 6.5? Cameron Wake feeding time will be delayed a few weeks and it could really hurt them in New Orleans. I could see New Orleans putting Miami back in their place.
My other picks went 7-6, which brings that total to 21-17-1. I'm not investing in those games, but it's nice to see that I would be up if I had.
Week 4 Thoughts:
49ers (-4) at Rams: This spread is in the middle of where I want it. If I could get Rams +7 or more, I like them and if I could get 49ers -3 or less, I'd like them. Probably a no play. Both teams have looked bad the past two weeks.
Steelers (-2.5) vs Vikings: Are these teams really this bad? Maybe. I'd favor Roethlisberger over Ponder, but Pitt can't run the ball.
Ravens (-3.5) at Bills: I didn't like Baldimore before the year and Buffalo has played decently well. I'd lean towards Buffalo.
Bengals (-5) at Browns: Cincy has been inconsistent and Cleveland played their hearts out last week. This could be a trap game for Cincy after beating Green Bay and with New England on deck.
Colts (-9.5) at Jaguars: Colts look legit but 9.5 is a lot. However, I wouldn't bet Jacksonville without getting 14.
Seahawks (-3) at Texans: Seattle historically hasn't traveled well but they look like a team on a mission. Houston has struggled since the middle of last season. It looks like two teams headed in opposite directions.
Cardinals (+2.5) at Buccaneers: Finally a home favorite! Two inconsistent teams. Probably a pass for me but I do expect Tampa Bay to win behind a QB that Schiano actually supports.
Bears (+2.5) at Lions: Lots of points. Charles Tillman is banged up and might miss the game. Megatron could go nuts if Peanut isn't playing. Bears offense has done just enough to win. I'm still suspect of them.
Giants (+5) at Chiefs: Giants hit Rock Bottom last week so they should respond. KC is 3-0 but they've relied on turnovers so far. Will it continue? Alex Smith sucks.
Jets (+4) at Titans: These teams could actually finish near .500 or better. Should be a good game.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Chargers: Dallas will have to show me that they can win on the road before I invest in them. However, I'm not investing in Phillip "Butthole" Rivers.
Redskins (-3.5) at Raiders: Skins have played 3 very good offenses and have gotten smoked. Can they respond against a below average offense? Raiders are a weird team. Probably a pass.
Eagles (+11.5) at Broncos: Philly can score and Dinver's D is very average. On the other hand, Manning should be able to do whatever he wants against Philly's D. Eagles get 10 days to get ready for this and Dinver only gets 6 days.
Patriots (+2.5) at Falcons: Pats getting points? That doesn't happen very often. I'd like to take Atlanta but they have tons of injuries. Should be an interesting game.
Dolphins (+6.5) at Saints: Two 3-0 teams and the line is 6.5? Cameron Wake feeding time will be delayed a few weeks and it could really hurt them in New Orleans. I could see New Orleans putting Miami back in their place.
Saturday, September 21, 2013
Week 3
I have a wedding today and I have been busy at work all week so I won't have any write-ups but here are my investments and predictions:
My Investments (2-2-1)
The Rest of Week 3 (15-11-1)
Chiefs (+3.5) 31 Eagles 23 (already recorded in my record)
Titans (-3) 24 Chargers 14
Vikings 20 Browns 13
Patriots (-7.5) 29 Buccaneers 14
Texans (-2.5) 20 Ravens 16
Cowboys (-3.5) 21 Rams 17
Saints 24 Cardinals (+7.5) 21
Lions (+1) 38 Redskins 30
Bengals (+3) 31 Packers 17
Giants (-1.5) 27 Panthers 21
Dolphins (-2) 24 Falcons 17
49ers (-10) 31 Colts 17
Bills (+2.5) 21 Jets 10
Steelers (+2.5) 21 Bears 17
My Investments (2-2-1)
Seahawks (-19) 42 Jaguars 0
Broncos 28 Raiders (+16) 23
The Rest of Week 3 (15-11-1)
Chiefs (+3.5) 31 Eagles 23 (already recorded in my record)
Titans (-3) 24 Chargers 14
Vikings 20 Browns 13
Patriots (-7.5) 29 Buccaneers 14
Texans (-2.5) 20 Ravens 16
Cowboys (-3.5) 21 Rams 17
Saints 24 Cardinals (+7.5) 21
Lions (+1) 38 Redskins 30
Bengals (+3) 31 Packers 17
Giants (-1.5) 27 Panthers 21
Dolphins (-2) 24 Falcons 17
49ers (-10) 31 Colts 17
Bills (+2.5) 21 Jets 10
Steelers (+2.5) 21 Bears 17
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Friday, September 13, 2013
Week 3 Expected Lines
Chiefs (+3.5) at Eagles
Chargers (+3.5) at Titans
Browns (+3) at Vikings
Buccaneers (+6) at Patriots
Texans (-2.5) at Ravens
Rams (+5) at Cowboys
Cardinals (+9) at Saints
Lions (PK) at Redskins
Packers (+3) at Bengals
Giants (+3) at Panthers
Falcons (PK) at Dolphins
Colts (+9.5) at 49ers
Jaguars (+15.5) at Seahawks
Bills (+1.5) at Jets
Bears (PK) at Steelers
Raiders (+17) at Broncos
Chargers (+3.5) at Titans
Browns (+3) at Vikings
Buccaneers (+6) at Patriots
Texans (-2.5) at Ravens
Rams (+5) at Cowboys
Cardinals (+9) at Saints
Lions (PK) at Redskins
Packers (+3) at Bengals
Giants (+3) at Panthers
Falcons (PK) at Dolphins
Colts (+9.5) at 49ers
Jaguars (+15.5) at Seahawks
Bills (+1.5) at Jets
Bears (PK) at Steelers
Raiders (+17) at Broncos
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Week 2
My Investments (2-1)
Jets (+11.5) at Patriots: I will start this by saying that the Jets will be lucky to win 5 games this year. Tampa Bay basically handed the Jets the game last week and New York squeaked out a 1 point win. Normally, I'd say that they don't have the fire power to hang with New England, but Tom Brady is missing 80% of the team's receptions from last year and now they are without Amendola, who had 10 catches last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game come down to the last possession.
Patriots 24 Jets 17
Chargers (+8) at Eagles: San Diego blew it on Mondee. Butthole Rivers threw a costly INT and they blew a big lead. I have them towards the bottom of my power rankings for good reason. The Eagles went nuts in their first game. It will take a few weeks for teams to figure out the Eagles offense, but San Diego is not the team to figure it out. Chargers play an early game on the east coast after playing Mondee Night. Not good for Butthole.
Eagles 31 Chargers 20
Titans (+9.5) at Texans: Both of these teams had big road wins to start the year. Tennessee's D was dominant and Houston had a huge come from behind victory. I would like to take Tennessee, but that offense is weak. Playing a top 5 defense won't help matters. Houston won't run away with it, but Tennessee doesn't have much of a chance of pulling this one off.
Texans 30 Titans 14
Dolphins (+3) at Colts: Both of these teams have playoff aspirations. In a weak AFC, both should be able to compete. That makes this game even more important because this game could be the tie-breaker for a Wild Card spot. I like the improvements that South Beach has made. They added some players on defense and an explosive WR. That didn't show in Week 1, but they should be able to move the ball against an Indy D that gave up 378 yards to Oakland last week. Indy had good balance and I expect the same this week. Both teams should be able to score points, but I have to take Luck at home only giving a FG.
Colts 31 Dolphins 27
Panthers (-3) at Bills: Both of these teams lost to teams that are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders last week, but both played them tough. Carolina looks like a team on the rise, while Buffalo just lost their "Super Bowl". If the Sex Panthers are going to make a playoff push, they can't afford to start 0-2. Newton will lead them to a victory here.
Panthers 24 Bills 20
Redskins (+7.5) at Packers: The loser of this game goes from 2012 division champ to 0-2. The Redskins looked lost on Mondee and I'm thinking it will continue at Lambeau. They have a shot to keep it close with Alfred Morris's ability of having a big day, but that defense will struggle to stop the Packers explosive offense. After seeing the 49ers' physical defense, the Redskins defense will look like a high school team. Packers should score lots of points.
Packers 41 Redskins 20
Cowboys (+3) at Chiefs: I think both of these teams could be sleeper teams. However, while KC can be a playoff sleeper, Dallas can be a Super Bowl contender. I'm driving the Romo bandwagon this year. KC didn't do much vs a poor Jags defense last week and I don't think they'll score enough to win this game.
Cowboys 20 Chiefs 14
Vikings (+6.5) at Bears: I was very impressed with the Bears last week. I consider Cincinnati a legit Super Bowl contender and the Bears beat them with 2 rookie offensive linemen. But I'm still not sold on the Bears this year. I'm expecting Adrian Peterson to have a normal Adrian Peterson game. I'm picking the Bears, but only by a FG:
Bears 23 Vikings 20
Jaguars (+6) at Raiders: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Raiders 23 Jaguars 13
Broncos (-4) at Giants: Dinver was #2 on my preseason power rankings. The Giants were #24. Who do you think I'm going with?
Broncos 35 Giants 24
49ers (+2.5) at Seahawks: This should be a fun game to watch. I think the 49ers are the much better team, but I have a difficult time picking against Seattle at home. I'm not a big fan of Russell Wilson or the Seattle offense, but I'm going with them at home.
Seahawks 20 49ers 17
Steelers (+7) at Bengals: This game is the definition of two teams heading in opposite directions. Pittsburgh looks old and injured. The bottom is going to fall out very shortly. The Bengals are young and on the verge of contending for a Super Bowl. Cincy can't lose this game, especially at home on Mondee night. I'm going with the Bengals in a convincing win.
Bengals 24 Steelers 6
Browns (+7) at Ravens: I was hoping to get more value with this play, but I'll take what I can get. Both of these teams struggled in their first game. Baldimore should be fired up for their first home game but I think it'll be a weird feeling without Reed, Lewis, and Boldin. They clearly missed those guys in the season opener. Baldimore should be fine, eventually. That probably won't happen early this season. Cleveland is a young team on the rise and should be able to run the ball on Baldimore with a big offensive line and a stud RB in Richardson. I'm calling for the upset with Baldimore possibly looking ahead to Houston next week.
Browns 28 Ravens 20
Rams (+7) at Falcons: In Steven Jackson's first game vs St. Louis, Atlanta is almost in must-win mode. The Rams had a big win last week and look to build on it. The Rams defense puts lots of pressure on the QB and I expect them to do that this week. Matt Ryan rarely loses at home (25-3 in meaningful games) but this team could have a hangover from last year. They only managed 17 points vs a poor Saints defense. They ran for 6.3 a carry but they only ran the ball 14 times. The Falcons have not had much balance on offense over the past few years and I expect them to continue that here. I'm calling for another upset. Bradford has a big day and the Rams shock Atlanta.
Rams 27 Falcons 20
Bengals (-7) is a possible play also. I'm still mulling over my options.
The Rest of Week 2
Jets (+11.5) at Patriots: I will start this by saying that the Jets will be lucky to win 5 games this year. Tampa Bay basically handed the Jets the game last week and New York squeaked out a 1 point win. Normally, I'd say that they don't have the fire power to hang with New England, but Tom Brady is missing 80% of the team's receptions from last year and now they are without Amendola, who had 10 catches last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game come down to the last possession.
Patriots 24 Jets 17
Chargers (+8) at Eagles: San Diego blew it on Mondee. Butthole Rivers threw a costly INT and they blew a big lead. I have them towards the bottom of my power rankings for good reason. The Eagles went nuts in their first game. It will take a few weeks for teams to figure out the Eagles offense, but San Diego is not the team to figure it out. Chargers play an early game on the east coast after playing Mondee Night. Not good for Butthole.
Eagles 31 Chargers 20
Titans (+9.5) at Texans: Both of these teams had big road wins to start the year. Tennessee's D was dominant and Houston had a huge come from behind victory. I would like to take Tennessee, but that offense is weak. Playing a top 5 defense won't help matters. Houston won't run away with it, but Tennessee doesn't have much of a chance of pulling this one off.
Texans 30 Titans 14
Dolphins (+3) at Colts: Both of these teams have playoff aspirations. In a weak AFC, both should be able to compete. That makes this game even more important because this game could be the tie-breaker for a Wild Card spot. I like the improvements that South Beach has made. They added some players on defense and an explosive WR. That didn't show in Week 1, but they should be able to move the ball against an Indy D that gave up 378 yards to Oakland last week. Indy had good balance and I expect the same this week. Both teams should be able to score points, but I have to take Luck at home only giving a FG.
Colts 31 Dolphins 27
Panthers (-3) at Bills: Both of these teams lost to teams that are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders last week, but both played them tough. Carolina looks like a team on the rise, while Buffalo just lost their "Super Bowl". If the Sex Panthers are going to make a playoff push, they can't afford to start 0-2. Newton will lead them to a victory here.
Panthers 24 Bills 20
Redskins (+7.5) at Packers: The loser of this game goes from 2012 division champ to 0-2. The Redskins looked lost on Mondee and I'm thinking it will continue at Lambeau. They have a shot to keep it close with Alfred Morris's ability of having a big day, but that defense will struggle to stop the Packers explosive offense. After seeing the 49ers' physical defense, the Redskins defense will look like a high school team. Packers should score lots of points.
Packers 41 Redskins 20
Cowboys (+3) at Chiefs: I think both of these teams could be sleeper teams. However, while KC can be a playoff sleeper, Dallas can be a Super Bowl contender. I'm driving the Romo bandwagon this year. KC didn't do much vs a poor Jags defense last week and I don't think they'll score enough to win this game.
Cowboys 20 Chiefs 14
Vikings (+6.5) at Bears: I was very impressed with the Bears last week. I consider Cincinnati a legit Super Bowl contender and the Bears beat them with 2 rookie offensive linemen. But I'm still not sold on the Bears this year. I'm expecting Adrian Peterson to have a normal Adrian Peterson game. I'm picking the Bears, but only by a FG:
Bears 23 Vikings 20
Saints (-4) at Buccaneers: I had the Saints extremely high in my preseason power rankings. I think they can compete for a championship if everything goes right. Tampa is coming off an awful loss to the Jets and I expect them to respond here. I think Tampa will be able move the ball and score. The Saints could also be in for a letdown.
Buccaneers 26 Saints 23
Lions (-2.5) at Cardinals: It has finally happened. All of those 1st round picks that Detroit has taken are playing extremely well. The difference is that this year, it appears that they are finally going to be able to play together and make Detroit a contender. Arizona is a team with limited upside. I'm guessing that Detroit starts out extremely hot this year and they beat Arizona convincingly.
Lions 34 Cardinals 16
Jaguars (+6) at Raiders: PILLOW FIGHT!!!
Raiders 23 Jaguars 13
Broncos (-4) at Giants: Dinver was #2 on my preseason power rankings. The Giants were #24. Who do you think I'm going with?
Broncos 35 Giants 24
49ers (+2.5) at Seahawks: This should be a fun game to watch. I think the 49ers are the much better team, but I have a difficult time picking against Seattle at home. I'm not a big fan of Russell Wilson or the Seattle offense, but I'm going with them at home.
Seahawks 20 49ers 17
Steelers (+7) at Bengals: This game is the definition of two teams heading in opposite directions. Pittsburgh looks old and injured. The bottom is going to fall out very shortly. The Bengals are young and on the verge of contending for a Super Bowl. Cincy can't lose this game, especially at home on Mondee night. I'm going with the Bengals in a convincing win.
Bengals 24 Steelers 6
Week 1 Recap/Week 2 First Thoughts
Week 1 Record
Investments: 2-1
Others: 6-6
When Indy was up 14-0, I thought I was in for a monster week. Instead, I'm still up 0.9 units. On my way to 6.0.
My Power Rankings won't change much until I am convinced to do so. One week doesn't do much convincing. I'll update them every two or three weeks.
Neither of my Week 2 "Jump On" games let me jump on them. The Ravens didn't open at higher than 7 so I didn't take Cleveland yet. The Steelers had so many injuries, they opened at 6.5 and it is now sitting at 7. I am still looking into Cleveland and Cincinnati.
At first glance:
Jets at Patriots (-12): If New England was a better team, I'd love them in a "letdown" spot here for the Jets. If this was the old Patriots, I could see this being 45-10. But not much value at 12.
Chargers at Eagles (-9): This is a crazy over reaction for Philly. The spread should be no higher than 7. One thing that they have going for them is that San Diego has to travel much further and will get about 4 less hours of rest.
Titans at Texans (-9): Houston looked rusty on Mondee and Tennessee's D looked solid vs Pittsburgh. I am not really high on Houston, so if this goes to 10.5, I may take Tennessee.
Dolphins at Colts (-3): This is where the spread should be. A Miami win would be impressive to start 2-0 on the road. With that logic, Indy could be a play.
Panthers (-3) at Bills: Not enough value on either side here. This will probably be a pass.
Rams (+7) at Falcons: Spread is where it should be. If the Rams are a legit playoff contender, I could see them winning this game or making it a one possession loss.
Redskins at Packers (-7.5): Washington could offer lots of value with Alfred Morris and a big line that could control Green Bay. This is a huge bounce back chance for the Skins. Green Bay is tough so the line had to open at 7.
Cowboys at Chiefs (-3): Two of my teams. Not much value.
Vikings at Bears (-6.5): Again, I think the dog offers some value here. I had Minnesota ranked higher than Chicago and my opinion didn't change after one game.
Saints (-4.5) at Buccaneers: Speaking of dogs. What would this line have been if Tampa didn't give last week's game to the Jets? Although I think New Orleans could be surprise contenders, Tampa played a top D last week on the road and now they get a bad defense at home. They could score lots of points.
Lions (-2.5) at Cardinals: Not much here.
Jaguars at Raiders (-6): Oakland was the worst team in my rankings and now they're giving 6? I'm not buying it.
Broncos (-5.5) at Giants: Spread seems accurate.
49ers at Seahawks (-2.5): Again, seems accurate.
Investments: 2-1
Others: 6-6
When Indy was up 14-0, I thought I was in for a monster week. Instead, I'm still up 0.9 units. On my way to 6.0.
My Power Rankings won't change much until I am convinced to do so. One week doesn't do much convincing. I'll update them every two or three weeks.
Neither of my Week 2 "Jump On" games let me jump on them. The Ravens didn't open at higher than 7 so I didn't take Cleveland yet. The Steelers had so many injuries, they opened at 6.5 and it is now sitting at 7. I am still looking into Cleveland and Cincinnati.
At first glance:
Jets at Patriots (-12): If New England was a better team, I'd love them in a "letdown" spot here for the Jets. If this was the old Patriots, I could see this being 45-10. But not much value at 12.
Chargers at Eagles (-9): This is a crazy over reaction for Philly. The spread should be no higher than 7. One thing that they have going for them is that San Diego has to travel much further and will get about 4 less hours of rest.
Titans at Texans (-9): Houston looked rusty on Mondee and Tennessee's D looked solid vs Pittsburgh. I am not really high on Houston, so if this goes to 10.5, I may take Tennessee.
Dolphins at Colts (-3): This is where the spread should be. A Miami win would be impressive to start 2-0 on the road. With that logic, Indy could be a play.
Panthers (-3) at Bills: Not enough value on either side here. This will probably be a pass.
Rams (+7) at Falcons: Spread is where it should be. If the Rams are a legit playoff contender, I could see them winning this game or making it a one possession loss.
Redskins at Packers (-7.5): Washington could offer lots of value with Alfred Morris and a big line that could control Green Bay. This is a huge bounce back chance for the Skins. Green Bay is tough so the line had to open at 7.
Cowboys at Chiefs (-3): Two of my teams. Not much value.
Vikings at Bears (-6.5): Again, I think the dog offers some value here. I had Minnesota ranked higher than Chicago and my opinion didn't change after one game.
Saints (-4.5) at Buccaneers: Speaking of dogs. What would this line have been if Tampa didn't give last week's game to the Jets? Although I think New Orleans could be surprise contenders, Tampa played a top D last week on the road and now they get a bad defense at home. They could score lots of points.
Lions (-2.5) at Cardinals: Not much here.
Jaguars at Raiders (-6): Oakland was the worst team in my rankings and now they're giving 6? I'm not buying it.
Broncos (-5.5) at Giants: Spread seems accurate.
49ers at Seahawks (-2.5): Again, seems accurate.
Friday, September 6, 2013
Week 2 early looks
My three games are in for Week 1 and I'm beginning to focus on Week 2. There are a few games that I'm really focusing on:
Cleveland at Baldimore: I'm not very high on the Ravens this year. They'll be getting their rings in their home opener and they'll be hosting a 2012 last place team. However, Cleveland played the Ravens tough last year and I wouldn't be shocked to see them finish with a better record than Baldimore. Cleveland's big OLine and a big dose of Trent Richardson should give the Ravens more than they can handle. If I can get 7+, I'm taking this immediately.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: I am extremely high on Cincy this year. I think they are a legit Super Bowl contender. They have two major statement games to start the year. If the Bengals defeat the Bears, like I think they will, I think this game could become a Mondee Night blowout. If I see this at Cincy -3 or lower, I'm grabbing it right away.
I'm going to continue to do some research on Week 2 and I'll post once I decide my opinions.
Cleveland at Baldimore: I'm not very high on the Ravens this year. They'll be getting their rings in their home opener and they'll be hosting a 2012 last place team. However, Cleveland played the Ravens tough last year and I wouldn't be shocked to see them finish with a better record than Baldimore. Cleveland's big OLine and a big dose of Trent Richardson should give the Ravens more than they can handle. If I can get 7+, I'm taking this immediately.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: I am extremely high on Cincy this year. I think they are a legit Super Bowl contender. They have two major statement games to start the year. If the Bengals defeat the Bears, like I think they will, I think this game could become a Mondee Night blowout. If I see this at Cincy -3 or lower, I'm grabbing it right away.
I'm going to continue to do some research on Week 2 and I'll post once I decide my opinions.
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