Week 6

My Investments (4-5-1)

Saints (+3) at Patriots:  I haven't been big on New England all year.  They can't throw the ball down the field and I think they will be severely overmatched in this game.  They can out-Belichick and out-Brady most of the NFL, but when it comes to the elite teams, I don't see it happening.  Gronkowski should be back, but we don't know what he'll produce.  The Saints are getting better with every game and I think they'll make a statement in this game.

Saints 28 Patriots 13

Colts (-1.5) at Chargers:  I can't believe I picked Butthole Rivers to actually win last week.  That won't happen this week.

Colts 28 Chargers 19

The Rest of Week 6 (31-32-2)

Giants (+7.5) at Bears: Both of these teams have been disappointing the past few games.  Neither team can rush the passer or protect their own QB.  Statistically, the Bears have the advantage but I'm not sure the Giants don't have one last big shot left in them.  The Giants will hang in there for a while but come up short in the end.  The Bears rely on turnovers and no one has turned it over more than the Giants:

Bears 27 Giants 26

Raiders (+8.5) at Chiefs:  I liked the Chiefs before the season started and I still think that they are a very solid team, but 8.5 points is a lot vs a division rival.  Oakland is 2-2 in Pryor's starts and their two losses were to the Colts and Broncos.  I think the Chiefs will add to the list of really good teams that Pryor loses to but, Oakland covers.

Chiefs 20 Raiders 13

Eagles (-1) at Buccaneers:  PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Eagles 23 Buccaneers 17

Packers (-3) at Ravens:  Green Bay is banged up but they still have Aaron Rodgers.  Green Bay will have to run the ball in order to keep the Ravens' pass rushers off of Rodgers.  I'm not a Ravens guy.  Their offense should struggle even with Clay Matthews missing the game.  Packers get a big road win.

Packers 27 Ravens 16

Lions (-2.5) at Browns:  This could be a season making win for one of these teams.  The winner goes to 4-2.  The loser could drop to third in their division.  The game will probably be a low scoring game as both defenses matchup well with the offenses.  I'm driving the Cleveland bandwagon for a while longer.

Browns 20 Lions 16

Panthers (+2.5) at Vikings:  PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Panthers 21 Vikings 20

Rams (+7.5) at Texans:  Almost a pillow fight.  How can Houston give 7.5 points to anyone not named Jacksonville?  The Rams should have a difficult time moving the ball but Houston has Matt Schaub.  I can't give more than 7 with Matt Schaub playing QB.

Texans 13 Rams 9

Steelers (+2.5) at Jets:  Are the Steelers really this bad?  They still have big name players on their team and I think they still have a lot of fight left in them.  Are the Jets really this good?  The stats say YES but I'm still skeptical.  Plus, it's a big letdown spot for the Jets.  Coming off a bye, I'm going to ride the Steelers bandwagon for a few weeks.  This will be an Investment if I can get 3 points.

Steelers 31 Jets 10

Bengals (-7) at Bills:  I really like Cincy but they don't make enough big plays on offense.  Their QB is sub par and their running game isn't all that impressive.  However, Thaddeus Lewis is starting at QB for the Bills.  Who is Thaddeus Lewis you say?  I have no idea but I'm guessing that the Bengals shut him down.

Bengals 19 Bills 3

Titans (+13) at Seahawks:  I know that Seattle has been blowing out teams at home but 13 points against a decent team?  That's too many to be giving away.  Fitzpatrick isn't a total liability and Tennessee's D can contain Seattle's offense.  Seahawks win, but not by 13.

Seahawks 31 Titans 20

Jaguars (+26.5) at Broncos:  I'll predict Jacksonville will have a lead in this game.  But it won't last.  The score goes from 3-0 to 42-3 very quickly.  But Blackmon will catch 2 TD for a backdoor cover!!

Broncos 42 Jaguars 17

Cardinals (+10.5) at 49ers:  Cardinals are somehow 3-2.  They can matchup with teams that throw the ball, but I don't see how they are going to be able to stop the 49ers running game.  And even if they can, Carson Palmer will throw multiple passes to 49ers DBs.  I don't see an upset here.

49ers 24 Cardinals 7

Redskins (+5.5) at Cowboys:  Does anyone know what to think of either of these two teams?  Both are inconsistent and both have glaring weaknesses, especially on defense.  The Skins are coming off a bye and could possibly move into first place with a win and an Eagles loss.  How bad does that sound?  PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Cowboys 24 Redskins 23

Week 6 Power Rankings Spreads

This does not include injuries or byes.  This only takes into account the first 5 weeks of the season.

Bears -18.5 vs Giants
Chiefs -14.5 vs Raiders
Eagles -1 at Buccaneers
Ravens -4.5 vs Packers
Browns -3.5 vs Lions
Vikings -1.5 vs Panthers
Jets -13.5 vs Steelers
Bengals -1 at Bills
Seahawks -7.5 vs Titans
Broncos -28 vs Jaguars
49ers -6 vs Cardinals
Saints -3.5 vs Patriots
Cowboys -11 vs Redskins
Colts -8.5 vs Chargers

Bears, Ravens, Browns, Jets, Saints, and Colts offer the most value according to this tool.  My first thoughts are that the Saints and Colts may be plays this week.

Power Rankings Through Week 5

The 3 parts of this formula includes the team's record, strength of schedule, and point differential.

1. Dinver Broncos 12.1

2. New Orleans Saints 11.1

3. Kansas City Chiefs 9.3

4. Indianapolis Colts 8.7

5. Seattle Seahawks 7.4

6. New England Patriots 4.6

7. San Francisco 49ers 4.1

8. Miami Dolphins 3.8
9. Baldimore Ravens 3.8
10. Tennessee Titans 3.0

11. Cincinnati Bengals 2.5

12. Chicago Bears 2.4

13. Green Bay Packers 2.2

14. Cleveland Browns 2.1

15. Detroit Lions 1.5

16. Arizona Cardinals 1.1

17. Dallas Cowboys 0.4

18. New York Jets -0.9
19. Buffalo Bills -1.5

20. Oakland Raiders -2.3

22. Philadelphia Eagles -2.6

23. San Diego Chargers -2.9

24. Houston Texans -3.1

25. Carolina Panthers -3.7

26. Minnesota Vikings -5.3

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.3

28. Washington Redskins -6.4

29. St. Louis Rams -6.5

30. Pittsburgh Steelers -11.4

31. Jacksonville Jaguars -12.8

32. New York Giants -13.0

Week 6 Expected Lines

Giants (+8) at Bears

Raiders (+10) at Chiefs

Eagles (PK) at Buccaneers

Packers (-2.5) at Ravens

Lions (-2) at Browns

Panthers (-1) at Vikings

Rams (+9) at Texans

Steelers (PK) at Jets

Bengals (-5) at Bills

Titans (+12) at Seahawks

Jaguars (+26) at Broncos

Cardinals (+11) at 49ers

Saints (-3) at Patriots

Redskins (+4) at Cowboys

Colts (-3) at Chargers

Week 5

My Investments (4-5-1)

NONE

The Rest of Week 5 (26-24-2)

Chiefs (-3) 24 Titans 20
Dolphins (-2.5) 23 Ravens 20
Rams 20 Jaguars (+11) 16
Bengals (+1) 30 Patriots 26

Packers 27 Lions (+7.5) 23

Colts (+3) 23 Seahawks 17
Bears (+1.5) 27 Saints 24
Giants (-1.5) 34 Eagles 20
Panthers (-3) 27 Cardinals 19
Chargers 24 Raiders (+5) 21
Broncos 35 Cowboys (+9) 27
49ers 20 Texans (+4.5) 17
Falcons (-10) 31 Jets 13

Week 5

I'll post the write-ups and other predictions tomorrow.

Thursdee Night:
Browns (-4) 23 Bills 13

Patriots/Falcons Total

I'm officially investing in the UNDER between New England and Atlanta.  The number is currently at 51.5 and I officially made it a play on the Week 4 pick post.

Week 4 Prediction Changes

After seeing the injuries that have taken place on the offensive lines in Seattle and New York, I changed my Seahawks-Texans prediction and my Giants-Chiefs prediction.  I've heard tons of things about Gronkowski and Amendola, so I'm still waiting on that Under.

Week 4

My Investments (4-3-1)

Eagles (+11.5) at Broncos: Peyton Manning is the best QB in the NFL and Dinver has been one of the two dominant teams this year (Seattle being the other).  The Broncos are averaging over 42 points per game.  The defense has been solid so far.  They've played well enough to get a lead and then Manning takes over in the second half.  The Eagles have been the model of inconsistency but they are averaging 462 yards per game, 2nd in the NFL behind on Dinver.  They lost last second to San Diego (who could very easily be 3-0) and they turned it over 5 times vs KC (who is 3-0) last Thursdee.  Thursdee games are always sloppy, so I'm throwing that game out.  This team is very dangerous and they will easily be the biggest test that Dinver has faced.  I'm expecting a crazy shootout.  Add in Philly's extra rest and Dinver playing on short rest in the thin air for the second game in a row, and I'm taking the points.

Broncos 38 Eagles 36 (Philadelphia +11.5)

Patriots (+2.5) at Falcons:  Both of these teams have struggled so far, even though the Patriots are 3-0.  The Patriots have become a team that is reliant on their run game, short passing game, and defense.  Atlanta has lost 2 games to teams that are a combined 6-0, so you can't entirely fault them for their 1-2 record.  I'm envisioning a close game but not with all the points that most are expecting.  New England is ahead of only Jacksonville in YPA and they should have difficulty running against Atlanta's 5th ranked run defense.  Atlanta will be without Steven Jackson and Roddy White has been invisible this year.  Without Jackson, they can put drives together but will struggle to put the ball in the end zone against New England.  Add in New England's 4th ranked YPA defense and I see Atlanta's big plays coming to a minimum.

Falcons 20 Patriots 17 (Under 51.5)

The Rest of Week 4 (21-17-1)

49ers (-3.5) at Rams:  Both of these teams have looked really bad the past few weeks.  I have no idea what to expect here other than it will probably be a low scoring game.  Since the line is higher than 3, I'll take the points.

49ers 20 Rams 17

Steelers (-2.5) vs Vikings:  PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Steelers 17 Vikings 14

Ravens (-3) at Bills:  The Ravens seem to have got going the past 6 quarters after struggling the first 6 quarters of the young season.  For that reason I'm backing them.  And the fact that Buffalo just gave up 513 yards to the Jets.

Ravens 24 Bills 19

Bengals (-4.5) at Browns:  The Bengals are 2-1 but they really haven't looked that great.  Dalton is mediocre and I fear that he will hold them back from being a legit contender.  The Browns played an inspirational game last week and hope to keep it going this week.  I would be tempted to back Cincy here, but they just came off an emotional win last week and they play New England next week.  This is the definition of a sandwich game.  Cleveland pulls it out in the Dog Pound.

Browns 17 Bengals 14

Colts (-9.5) at Jaguars:  The Colts look like they are a physical team for the first time since I can ever remember.  Both sides of the ball are playing well.  The Jags are really, really bad.  I don't think they will get totally embarrassed as Indy could have a letdown and they could be looking ahead to Seattle next week.  Indy covers by a slight margin.

Colts 28 Jaguars 17

Seahawks (-3) at Texans:  Seattle is the hottest team in the NFL.  They are tops in the NFL in offensive yards per passing attempt (YPA), defensive YPA, defensive QB rating and second in offensive QB rating.  They've been on a tear since the middle of the year last year.  Houston has not been the same team ever since their bye last year.  Houston's losses in that time have come by 18, 28, 17, 12, 13, and 21 points.  I don't think Schaub is a good QB and he should struggle mightily against the most dominating defense in the NFL.  Seattle has yet to give up 266 total yards in a game.  Houston seems to feast on bad QB, but the good QB have done well against them since last year.  In games vs Manning, Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, and Brady again, Houston gave up 36.2 points per game.  Russell Wilson may not be quite in that class, but he does currently own the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL.  These are two teams heading in opposite directions.  This was almost an Investment, but Houston's ability to stop the run and the fact that Seattle's offense tends to struggle much more on the road scared me off.

Texans 24 Seahawks 17***

Cardinals (+2.5) at Buccaneers: PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Buccaneers 23 Cardinals 19

Bears (+2.5) at Lions: Are these two teams the class of the NFC North?  It is quite possible.  Both teams seem to have above average offenses and defenses.  I'm still skeptical of the Bears though and Charles Tillman is banged up.  If he doesn't play, Megatron will either have a monster game or demand double teams and open up the game for the other receivers on the team.  Both offenses should have fun in this game.

Lions 34 Bears 24

Giants (+5) at Chiefs: The Giants can't be this bad, can they?  I didn't like them before the season but they are still decent.  After hitting Rock Bottom last week, I expect them to play much better this week. KC has been a pleasant surprise.  The D has been awesome and carried them to a 3-0 record.  This is more of a gut call.  Eli has a big game and Allie struggles.

Chiefs 27 Giants 14

Jets (+4) at Titans:  Guess which two teams in the NFL have yet to turn the ball over.  Kansas City and...  Kansas City and...  Littering and...  You guessed it, the Tennessee Titans!  Well, I was shocked when I saw that stat.  Both of these teams have been surprises this year.  I think they could both be average if they continue to play this way.  The Jets have turned the ball over too much so far for me to pick this upset, but I'll still take them with the points.

Titans 20 Jets 17

Cowboys (-2) at Chargers: I'm a Tony Romo Guy.  I'm not a Butthole Rivers Guy.

Cowboys 30 Chargers 20

Redskins (-3.5) at Raiders: PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Redskins 28 Raiders 24

Dolphins (+6.5) at Saints:  Two 3-0 teams playing Mondee night?  Gruden is going to be a happy, happy boy.  Miami is giving up 53 yards more than their offense is gaining and they are only +2 in turnovers.  That doesn't have the look of a 3-0 team.  The Saints offense is starting to click and Miami DE Cameron Wake isn't playing.  Miami will put up a good showing but come up short at the end.

Saints 26 Dolphins 20

Week 3 results/Week 4 early looks

Week 3 was a positive week.  My Investments are now 3-2-1.  Getting good lines is a huge key.  I saw Oakland at anywhere between +14.5 to +16.5.  I got a push at +16.  I had a game Week 2 that was a push instead of a loss.  Ideally, I'd pick games that cover the spread by 10+, but that's usually not the way the NFL goes.

My other picks went 7-6, which brings that total to 21-17-1.  I'm not investing in those games, but it's nice to see that I would be up if I had.

Week 4 Thoughts:

49ers (-4) at Rams:  This spread is in the middle of where I want it.  If I could get Rams +7 or more, I like them and if I could get 49ers -3 or less, I'd like them.  Probably a no play.  Both teams have looked bad the past two weeks.

Steelers (-2.5) vs Vikings:  Are these teams really this bad?  Maybe.  I'd favor Roethlisberger over Ponder, but Pitt can't run the ball.

Ravens (-3.5) at Bills:  I didn't like Baldimore before the year and Buffalo has played decently well.  I'd lean towards Buffalo.

Bengals (-5) at Browns:  Cincy has been inconsistent and Cleveland played their hearts out last week.  This could be a trap game for Cincy after beating Green Bay and with New England on deck.

Colts (-9.5) at Jaguars:  Colts look legit but 9.5 is a lot.  However, I wouldn't bet Jacksonville without getting 14.

Seahawks (-3) at Texans:  Seattle historically hasn't traveled well but they look like a team on a mission.  Houston has struggled since the middle of last season.  It looks like two teams headed in opposite directions.

Cardinals (+2.5)  at Buccaneers:  Finally a home favorite!  Two inconsistent teams.  Probably a pass for me but I do expect Tampa Bay to win behind a QB that Schiano actually supports.

Bears (+2.5) at Lions:  Lots of points.  Charles Tillman is banged up and might miss the game.  Megatron could go nuts if Peanut isn't playing.  Bears offense has done just enough to win.  I'm still suspect of them.

Giants (+5) at Chiefs:  Giants hit Rock Bottom last week so they should respond.  KC is 3-0 but they've relied on turnovers so far.  Will it continue?  Alex Smith sucks.

Jets (+4) at Titans:  These teams could actually finish near .500 or better.  Should be a good game.

Cowboys (-2.5) at Chargers:  Dallas will have to show me that they can win on the road before I invest in them.  However, I'm not investing in Phillip "Butthole" Rivers.

Redskins (-3.5) at Raiders:  Skins have played 3 very good offenses and have gotten smoked.  Can they respond against a below average offense?  Raiders are a weird team.  Probably a pass.

Eagles (+11.5) at Broncos:  Philly can score and Dinver's D is very average.  On the other hand, Manning should be able to do whatever he wants against Philly's D.  Eagles get 10 days to get ready for this and Dinver only gets 6 days.

Patriots (+2.5) at Falcons:  Pats getting points?  That doesn't happen very often.  I'd like to take Atlanta but they have tons of injuries.  Should be an interesting game.

Dolphins (+6.5) at Saints:  Two 3-0 teams and the line is 6.5?  Cameron Wake feeding time will be delayed a few weeks and it could really hurt them in New Orleans.  I could see New Orleans putting Miami back in their place.

Week 3

I have a wedding today and I have been busy at work all week so I won't have any write-ups but here are my investments and predictions:

My Investments (2-2-1)

Seahawks (-19) 42 Jaguars 0

Broncos 28 Raiders (+16) 23

The Rest of Week 3 (15-11-1)

Chiefs (+3.5) 31 Eagles 23 (already recorded in my record)
Titans (-3) 24 Chargers 14
Vikings 20 Browns 13
Patriots (-7.5) 29 Buccaneers 14
Texans (-2.5) 20  Ravens 16
Cowboys (-3.5) 21 Rams 17
Saints 24 Cardinals (+7.5) 21
Lions (+1) 38 Redskins 30
Bengals (+3) 31 Packers 17
Giants (-1.5) 27 Panthers 21
Dolphins (-2) 24 Falcons 17
49ers (-10) 31 Colts 17
Bills (+2.5) 21 Jets 10
Steelers (+2.5) 21 Bears 17

Week 3

No time for a write-up so I'm just posting my prediction:

Chiefs 31 Eagles 23

Week 3 Expected Lines

Chiefs (+3.5) at Eagles
Chargers (+3.5) at Titans
Browns (+3) at Vikings
Buccaneers (+6) at Patriots
Texans (-2.5) at Ravens
Rams (+5) at Cowboys
Cardinals (+9) at Saints
Lions (PK) at Redskins
Packers (+3) at Bengals
Giants (+3) at Panthers
Falcons (PK) at Dolphins
Colts (+9.5) at 49ers
Jaguars (+15.5) at Seahawks
Bills (+1.5) at Jets
Bears (PK) at Steelers
Raiders (+17) at Broncos

Week 2

My Investments (2-1)

Browns (+7) at Ravens: I was hoping to get more value with this play, but I'll take what I can get.  Both of these teams struggled in their first game.  Baldimore should be fired up for their first home game but I think it'll be a weird feeling without Reed, Lewis, and Boldin.  They clearly missed those guys in the season opener.  Baldimore should be fine, eventually.  That probably won't happen early this season.  Cleveland is a young team on the rise and should be able to run the ball on Baldimore with a big offensive line and a stud RB in Richardson.  I'm calling for the upset with Baldimore possibly looking ahead to Houston next week.

Browns 28 Ravens 20

Rams (+7) at Falcons: In Steven Jackson's first game vs St. Louis, Atlanta is almost in must-win mode. The Rams had a big win last week and look to build on it.  The Rams defense puts lots of pressure on the QB and I expect them to do that this week.  Matt Ryan rarely loses at home (25-3 in meaningful games) but this team could have a hangover from last year.  They only managed 17 points vs a poor Saints defense.  They ran for 6.3 a carry but they only ran the ball 14 times.  The Falcons have not had much balance on offense over the past few years and I expect them to continue that here.  I'm calling for another upset.  Bradford has a big day and the Rams shock Atlanta.

Rams 27 Falcons 20

Bengals (-7) is a possible play also.  I'm still mulling over my options.

The Rest of Week 2

Jets (+11.5) at Patriots:  I will start this by saying that the Jets will be lucky to win 5 games this year.  Tampa Bay basically handed the Jets the game last week and New York squeaked out a 1 point win.  Normally, I'd say that they don't have the fire power to hang with New England, but Tom Brady is missing 80% of the team's receptions from last year and now they are without Amendola, who had 10 catches last week.  I wouldn't be surprised to see this game come down to the last possession.

Patriots 24 Jets 17

Chargers (+8) at Eagles: San Diego blew it on Mondee.  Butthole Rivers threw a costly INT and they blew a big lead.  I have them towards the bottom of my power rankings for good reason.  The Eagles went nuts in their first game.  It will take a few weeks for teams to figure out the Eagles offense, but San Diego is not the team to figure it out.  Chargers play an early game on the east coast after playing Mondee Night.  Not good for Butthole.

Eagles 31 Chargers 20

Titans (+9.5) at Texans: Both of these teams had big road wins to start the year.  Tennessee's D was dominant and Houston had a huge come from behind victory.  I would like to take Tennessee, but that offense is weak.  Playing a top 5 defense won't help matters.  Houston won't run away with it, but Tennessee doesn't have much of a chance of pulling this one off.

Texans 30 Titans 14

Dolphins (+3) at Colts: Both of these teams have playoff aspirations.  In a weak AFC, both should be able to compete.  That makes this game even more important because this game could be the tie-breaker for a Wild Card spot.  I like the improvements that South Beach has made.  They added some players on defense and an explosive WR.  That didn't show in Week 1, but they should be able to move the ball against an Indy D that gave up 378 yards to Oakland last week.  Indy had good balance and I expect the same this week.  Both teams should be able to score points, but I have to take Luck at home only giving a FG.

Colts 31 Dolphins 27

Panthers (-3) at Bills: Both of these teams lost to teams that are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders last week, but both played them tough.  Carolina looks like a team on the rise, while Buffalo just lost their "Super Bowl".  If the Sex Panthers are going to make a playoff push, they can't afford to start 0-2. Newton will lead them to a victory here.

Panthers 24 Bills 20

Redskins (+7.5) at Packers: The loser of this game goes from 2012 division champ to 0-2.  The Redskins looked lost on Mondee and I'm thinking it will continue at Lambeau.  They have a shot to keep it close with Alfred Morris's ability of having a big day, but that defense will struggle to stop the Packers explosive offense.  After seeing the 49ers' physical defense, the Redskins defense will look like a high school team.  Packers should score lots of points.

Packers 41 Redskins 20

Cowboys (+3) at Chiefs: I think both of these teams could be sleeper teams.  However, while KC can be a playoff sleeper, Dallas can be a Super Bowl contender.  I'm driving the Romo bandwagon this year.  KC didn't do much vs a poor Jags defense last week and I don't think they'll score enough to win this game.

Cowboys 20 Chiefs 14

Vikings (+6.5) at Bears: I was very impressed with the Bears last week.  I consider Cincinnati a legit Super Bowl contender and the Bears beat them with 2 rookie offensive linemen.  But I'm still not sold on the Bears this year.  I'm expecting Adrian Peterson to have a normal Adrian Peterson game.  I'm picking the Bears, but only by a FG:

Bears 23 Vikings 20

Saints (-4) at Buccaneers: I had the Saints extremely high in my preseason power rankings.  I think they can compete for a championship if everything goes right.  Tampa is coming off an awful loss to the Jets and I expect them to respond here.  I think Tampa will be able move the ball and score.  The Saints could also be in for a letdown.

Buccaneers 26 Saints 23

Lions (-2.5) at Cardinals: It has finally happened.  All of those 1st round picks that Detroit has taken are playing extremely well.  The difference is that this year, it appears that they are finally going to be able to play together and make Detroit a contender.  Arizona is a team with limited upside.  I'm guessing that Detroit starts out extremely hot this year and they beat Arizona convincingly.

Lions 34 Cardinals 16

Jaguars (+6) at Raiders: PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Raiders 23 Jaguars 13

Broncos (-4) at Giants: Dinver was #2 on my preseason power rankings.  The Giants were #24.  Who do you think I'm going with?

Broncos 35 Giants 24

49ers (+2.5) at Seahawks: This should be a fun game to watch.  I think the 49ers are the much better team, but I have a difficult time picking against Seattle at home.  I'm not a big fan of Russell Wilson or the Seattle offense, but I'm going with them at home.

Seahawks 20 49ers 17

Steelers (+7) at Bengals: This game is the definition of two teams heading in opposite directions.  Pittsburgh looks old and injured.  The bottom is going to fall out very shortly.  The Bengals are young and on the verge of contending for a Super Bowl.  Cincy can't lose this game, especially at home on Mondee night.  I'm going with the Bengals in a convincing win.

Bengals 24 Steelers 6

Week 1 Recap/Week 2 First Thoughts

Week 1 Record
Investments: 2-1
Others: 6-6

When Indy was up 14-0, I thought I was in for a monster week.  Instead, I'm still up 0.9 units.  On my way to 6.0.

My Power Rankings won't change much until I am convinced to do so.  One week doesn't do much convincing.  I'll update them every two or three weeks.

Neither of my Week 2 "Jump On" games let me jump on them.  The Ravens didn't open at higher than 7 so I didn't take Cleveland yet.  The Steelers had so many injuries, they opened at 6.5 and it is now sitting at 7.  I am still looking into Cleveland and Cincinnati.

At first glance:

Jets at Patriots (-12):  If New England was a better team, I'd love them in a "letdown" spot here for the Jets.  If this was the old Patriots, I could see this being 45-10.  But not much value at 12.

Chargers at Eagles (-9):  This is a crazy over reaction for Philly.  The spread should be no higher than 7.  One thing that they have going for them is that San Diego has to travel much further and will get about 4 less hours of rest.

Titans at Texans (-9):  Houston looked rusty on Mondee and Tennessee's D looked solid vs Pittsburgh. I am not really high on Houston, so if this goes to 10.5, I may take Tennessee.

Dolphins at Colts (-3):  This is where the spread should be.  A Miami win would be impressive to start 2-0 on the road.  With that logic, Indy could be a play.

Panthers (-3) at Bills:  Not enough value on either side here.  This will probably be a pass.

Rams (+7) at Falcons:  Spread is where it should be.  If the Rams are a legit playoff contender, I could see them winning this game or making it a one possession loss.

Redskins at Packers (-7.5):  Washington could offer lots of value with Alfred Morris and a big line that could control Green Bay.  This is a huge bounce back chance for the Skins.  Green Bay is tough so the line had to open at 7.

Cowboys at Chiefs (-3):  Two of my teams.  Not much value.

Vikings at Bears (-6.5):  Again, I think the dog offers some value here.  I had Minnesota ranked higher than Chicago and my opinion didn't change after one game.

Saints (-4.5) at Buccaneers:  Speaking of dogs.  What would this line have been if Tampa didn't give last week's game to the Jets?  Although I think New Orleans could be surprise contenders, Tampa played a top D last week on the road and now they get a bad defense at home.  They could score lots of points.

Lions (-2.5) at Cardinals:  Not much here.

Jaguars at Raiders (-6):  Oakland was the worst team in my rankings and now they're giving 6?  I'm not buying it.

Broncos (-5.5) at Giants:  Spread seems accurate.

49ers at Seahawks (-2.5):  Again, seems accurate.

Week 2 early looks

My three games are in for Week 1 and I'm beginning to focus on Week 2.  There are a few games that I'm really focusing on:

Cleveland at Baldimore:  I'm not very high on the Ravens this year.  They'll be getting their rings in their home opener and they'll be hosting a 2012 last place team.  However, Cleveland played the Ravens tough last year and I wouldn't be shocked to see them finish with a better record than Baldimore.  Cleveland's big OLine and a big dose of Trent Richardson should give the Ravens more than they can handle.  If I can get 7+, I'm taking this immediately.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati:  I am extremely high on Cincy this year.  I think they are a legit Super Bowl contender.  They have two major statement games to start the year.  If the Bengals defeat the Bears, like I think they will, I think this game could become a Mondee Night blowout.  If I see this at Cincy -3 or lower, I'm grabbing it right away.

I'm going to continue to do some research on Week 2 and I'll post once I decide my opinions.

Preseason Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Dinver Broncos
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New Orleans Saints
5. New England Patriots
6. Indianapolis Colts
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Seattle Seahawks
10. Atlanta Falcons
11. Houston Texans
12. Kansas City Chiefs
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Minnesota Vikings
16. Washington Redskins
17. Baldimore Ravens
18. Philadelphia Eagles
19. Cleveland Browns
20. Chicago Bears
21. Detroit Lions
22. Carolina Panthers
23. St. Louis Rams
24. New York Giants
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Arizona Cardinals
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
28. Tennessee Titans
29. San Diego Chargers
30. Buffalo Bills
31. New York Jets
32. Oakland Raiders

Week 2 Expected Lines

Jets (+13) at Patriots

Rams (+7) at Falcons

Panthers (-3) at Bills

Vikings (+3.5) at Bears

Redskins (+6) at Packers

Dolphins (+4) at Colts

Cowboys (+3) at Chiefs

Chargers (+3) at Eagles

Browns (+6.5) at Ravens

Titans (+9.5) at Texans

Lions (PK) at Cardinals

Saints (-3) at Buccaneers

Jaguars (+1) at Raiders

Broncos (-3) at Giants

49ers (+3) at Seahawks

Steelers (+3) at Bengals

Week 1

My Investments

Bengals (+3.5) at Bears

Cincinnati has been to the playoffs the past two years and they are a young, hungry, improving team that should take the next step this year.  The defense is legit.  The offense is young and getting better.  The only thing that could hold them back this year is Dalton, but I think he makes slight improvements.  The Bears are a team with tons of question marks.  Lovie Smith and Brian Urlacher were the heart and soul of the defense.  They’re gone.  I think they’ll have a difficult time adjusting without those two.  The offense should be better but they are extremely thin at WR and I expect them to have a difficult time against the Bengals’ pass rush.  Like I said, Cincinnati is ready to take the next step and it starts with an impressive road win.

Bengals 28 Bears 13

Raiders (+7) at Colts

Oakland is bad.  Terrell Pryor is bad.  The WR are bad.  The defense is bad.  I think they are the worst team in the NFL.  Indianapolis, like Minnesota, is a team that people expect to have a letdown year.  With all the hype that Andrew Luck received before the draft last year, what makes you think that he won’t take a huge step forward this year?  I think Indianapolis is a legit threat to Houston’s division crown and I think they start out at home with a blowout win.

Colts 34 Raiders 10

Eagles (+4.5) at Redskins

The Eagles were terrible last year but they were supposed to be a contender.  I think they will surprise some people this year with how solid they are.  McCoy is on the verge of a career year.  However, the defense must play better than they did last year.  Why is Washington only a slight favorite at home on Monday night?  They have a young QB that everyone loves and a horse of RB in Alfred Morris.  The defense gets back some key players and it should be better.  My main concern with the Skins is RGIII.  Bob didn't play one down during the preseason.  I'm not really sold on him as a top tier QB and he should be extremely rusty.  I think Vick makes a few big plays and McCoy has a monster game.  Eagles outright.

Eagles 23 Redskins 10

The Rest of Week 1

Ravens (+8) at Broncos

This is a rematch game for Dinver after losing at home to Baldimore in the playoffs last year.  Dinver looks like the top dog in the AFC this year while the Ravens are a team that is in transition.  This team is younger and probably more talented than the team that won the Super Bowl last year, but I have a hard time thinking that the Ravens can lose Lewis and Reed off the D, and lose Boldin off the O, and still have enough leadership to contend this year, especially early in the season.  Dinver is loaded on offense but their D scares me.  They will be without Von Miller and they never really replaced Elvis Dumervil.  The secondary is old.  And I’m not crazy about their LB.  This is Peyton Manning’s Colts without Freeney and Mathis.  I think Dinver wins at home, but 8 is too much to be giving.

Broncos 24 Ravens 20

Patriots (-11.5) at Bills

New England will be without Aaron Hernandez and possibly Gronkowski; two vital parts of their 2012 offense.  Amendola could replace Wes Welker’s productivity but Brady doesn’t have the same familiarity with Amendola that he did with Welker.  Buffalo lost Kolb and top pick EJ Manuel to injuries and they will be starting undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel.  I’m not a believer in undrafted rookies starting early in the season but Buffalo does have some things going for them in this game.  The Bills will attempt to pound the ball with Spiller and Jackson and will only ask Tuel to “not lose the game.”  New England has virtually no film on Tuel so, I’m assuming, they will try to blitz him.  That is usually a good thing to do against young QBs, but if a few slants to Stevie Johnson or swing passes to Spiller end up in big plays, Buffalo can hang in there.  New England is the class of the division but when the spread opens at 7 and moves 4.5 points because of a Kevin Kolb injury, I have my doubts.  Patriots should win but this number is way too high.

Patriots 27 Bills 20

Titans (+7) at Steelers

I have no idea what to think of these teams and I don’t really like either of them.  I’m not a believer in Jake Locker and Tennessee’s defense was 27^th in yards allowed and dead last in PPG allowed last year.  You would think Pittsburgh would be able to capitalize on that but they are trying to replace their only real deep threat (Mike Wallace) and rookie RB Le’veon Bell is out.  Pittsburgh defense is old and maybe Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene can run on them.  If the spread moves off of 7, I’d favor the team getting the extra half point.

Steelers 24 Titans 17

Falcons (+3) at Saints

Atlanta is a team that wins every year and I’m not sure how and why.  They are solid, don’t get me wrong.  Their offense is explosive and they just added Steven Jackson, who should be a small upgrade over Michael Turner.  The Falcons defense is mediocre at best and those are the defenses that the Saints feast off of, especially at home.  The Saints are not getting as much credit as I believe that they should get.  Payton is among the top coaches in the NFL and he should call a more balanced game that what we saw last year from the Saints.  That dome will be insanely loud and I expect the Saints to put up a lot of points.

Saints 34 Falcons 24

Buccaneers (-3.5) at Jets

Tampa Bay is a decent team.  I like Freeman and they have some weapons in Martin and Vincent Jackson.  The defense is their weakness but I have no idea how the Jets can score on any team.  They have zero explosive players and a 2^nd round QB, who should be amongst the worst starting QB in the league.  The offense was bad last year and I actually think it could be worse this year.  The only way the Jets stay in this game is if they get some turnovers and convert them into TD.  I don’t see it happening.  The Jets are bad.

Buccaneers 23 Jets 10

Chiefs (-4) at Jaguars

Any time a team that finished 2-14 is favored Week 1, you have to have your doubts.  I like Kansas City as a team though.  Andy Reid is a good coach and Alex Smith should provide stability at QB.  The defense has been inconsistent in the past but they have some good players.  I’m actually a lot higher on Jacksonville than most people.  MJD and Shorts provide big play ability.  The defense should be a liability again, but their offense could be better than expected.  I have a feeling that all the love Kansas City is getting is unwarranted and I think Jacksonville is better than advertised.  I’m taking the home dog to pull this one off.

Jaguars 28 Chiefs 24

Dolphins (PK) at Browns

Both of these teams intrigue me.  Miami made some splashes in the offseason.  Can Tannehill take the next step with Mike Wallace to throw to?  Can the defense continue to improve?  Cleveland has a very physical offensive line and a flat out stud RB in Trent Richardson.  I also like Brandon Weeden as a possible breakout QB.  I think both of these teams are slightly below average and with Cleveland being the home team, I’ll take Cleveland.

Browns 24 Dolphins 21

Seahawks (-3) at Panthers

The Seahawks are a Super Bowl contender and they are loaded on defense.  They should be able to get Marshawn Lynch going and Russell Wilson should be able to make some plays against an average Carolina defense.  I am a huge believer in Cam Newton but he has very few weapons.  I think Carolina will keep it close, but you have to give me more than a FG to take Carolina in this game.

Seahawks 24 Panthers 19

Vikings (+5) at Lions

I know that there are always a few teams that make the playoffs and fail the following year (Detroit 10-6 to 4-12 last year).  Why do the Vikings have to be that team?  They added 2 first round picks on defense and added a 1^st round WR to go with the addition of Greg Jennings.  I think this team is a legit playoff contender.  Detroit, on the other hand, has their passing game.  That’s it.  Minnesota is inexperienced in the defensive backfield but Peterson should have a big day against Detroit and I don’t expect Ponder to have enough negative plays to mess it up.

Vikings 24 Lions 20

Cardinals (+4.5) at Rams

Arizona should have a much more stable QB this year with Carson Palmer.  Fitzgerald should actually see the ball every once in a while.  Their defense was 1^st in QB rating allowed last year and is a very underrated group.  The Rams are a popular sleeper this year but I have my doubts.  I’m not a Sam Bradford guy.  They lost their work horse RB and don’t have many weapons.  The defense should be really good again this year and I think the defense caries them to a low scoring victory at home.

Rams 19 Cardinals 16

Packers (+4) at 49ers

Both of these teams are loaded.  Green Bay should have a great offense with Rodgers.  The defense is the issue.  San Francisco destroyed them last year in the playoffs.  Green Bay has pretty much the same defense so the 49ers should be able to do it again, right?  History shows that after a team gets destroyed on the ground, they usually respond well the next game.  I am going to go with history and say the Packers defense plays much better because the 49ers should have a hard time stretching the field without Crabtree.

Packers 24 49ers 20

Giants (+3) at Cowboys

Can anyone figure out either of these teams?  The Giants go on two magical runs in the playoffs but other than that, they’ve been around a .500 team.  Dallas has tons of weapons on offense but they never seem to put it all together.  The Giants defense is getting old and I think it will be a very disappointing season for the Giants.  Dallas wins at home.

Cowboys 27 Giants 17

Texans (+4) at Chargers

Houston is a good team but I think they take a major step back this year.  Matt Schaub can’t get this team over the hump.  Foster is banged up.  They still don’t have much help for Andre Johnson.  The defense is legit but the offense isn’t explosive enough.  The Chargers are a team that is in full rebuild mode and Phillip Rivers looks like he can’t throw the ball anymore.  They aren’t strong in any aspect of the game.  I don’t like either of these teams so I’m taking the team that gets the extra half point if the spread moves off of 4.

Texans 24 Chargers 20

I have always had the dream of being a professional gambler.  Like most people, I am not a huge fan of working and having to deal with other people's shit.  Being self-employed would be the ideal job, especially if it included watching NFL and NBA games.  Over the next few years I will attempt to build a big enough bankroll to make it a possibility.  My goal is to hit 6 units this year (all bets will be 1 unit unless other wise noted) and then things could escalate very quickly.  I will be posting my predictions of every NFL game this year and commenting on who I am investing in.  NFL is my bread and butter.  I will look into some NCAA games and NBA games, but those will be few and far apart.  LET'S LIGHT IT UP!!!