Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Week 6

My Investments (4-5-1)

Saints (+3) at Patriots:  I haven't been big on New England all year.  They can't throw the ball down the field and I think they will be severely overmatched in this game.  They can out-Belichick and out-Brady most of the NFL, but when it comes to the elite teams, I don't see it happening.  Gronkowski should be back, but we don't know what he'll produce.  The Saints are getting better with every game and I think they'll make a statement in this game.

Saints 28 Patriots 13


Colts (-1.5) at Chargers:  I can't believe I picked Butthole Rivers to actually win last week.  That won't happen this week.

Colts 28 Chargers 19


The Rest of Week 6 (31-32-2)

Giants (+7.5) at Bears: Both of these teams have been disappointing the past few games.  Neither team can rush the passer or protect their own QB.  Statistically, the Bears have the advantage but I'm not sure the Giants don't have one last big shot left in them.  The Giants will hang in there for a while but come up short in the end.  The Bears rely on turnovers and no one has turned it over more than the Giants:

Bears 27 Giants 26

Raiders (+8.5) at Chiefs:  I liked the Chiefs before the season started and I still think that they are a very solid team, but 8.5 points is a lot vs a division rival.  Oakland is 2-2 in Pryor's starts and their two losses were to the Colts and Broncos.  I think the Chiefs will add to the list of really good teams that Pryor loses to but, Oakland covers.

Chiefs 20 Raiders 13

Eagles (-1) at Buccaneers:  PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Eagles 23 Buccaneers 17

Packers (-3) at Ravens:  Green Bay is banged up but they still have Aaron Rodgers.  Green Bay will have to run the ball in order to keep the Ravens' pass rushers off of Rodgers.  I'm not a Ravens guy.  Their offense should struggle even with Clay Matthews missing the game.  Packers get a big road win.

Packers 27 Ravens 16

Lions (-2.5) at Browns:  This could be a season making win for one of these teams.  The winner goes to 4-2.  The loser could drop to third in their division.  The game will probably be a low scoring game as both defenses matchup well with the offenses.  I'm driving the Cleveland bandwagon for a while longer.

Browns 20 Lions 16

Panthers (+2.5) at Vikings:  PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Panthers 21 Vikings 20

Rams (+7.5) at Texans:  Almost a pillow fight.  How can Houston give 7.5 points to anyone not named Jacksonville?  The Rams should have a difficult time moving the ball but Houston has Matt Schaub.  I can't give more than 7 with Matt Schaub playing QB.

Texans 13 Rams 9

Steelers (+2.5) at Jets:  Are the Steelers really this bad?  They still have big name players on their team and I think they still have a lot of fight left in them.  Are the Jets really this good?  The stats say YES but I'm still skeptical.  Plus, it's a big letdown spot for the Jets.  Coming off a bye, I'm going to ride the Steelers bandwagon for a few weeks.  This will be an Investment if I can get 3 points.

Steelers 31 Jets 10

Bengals (-7) at Bills:  I really like Cincy but they don't make enough big plays on offense.  Their QB is sub par and their running game isn't all that impressive.  However, Thaddeus Lewis is starting at QB for the Bills.  Who is Thaddeus Lewis you say?  I have no idea but I'm guessing that the Bengals shut him down.

Bengals 19 Bills 3

Titans (+13) at Seahawks:  I know that Seattle has been blowing out teams at home but 13 points against a decent team?  That's too many to be giving away.  Fitzpatrick isn't a total liability and Tennessee's D can contain Seattle's offense.  Seahawks win, but not by 13.

Seahawks 31 Titans 20

Jaguars (+26.5) at Broncos:  I'll predict Jacksonville will have a lead in this game.  But it won't last.  The score goes from 3-0 to 42-3 very quickly.  But Blackmon will catch 2 TD for a backdoor cover!!

Broncos 42 Jaguars 17

Cardinals (+10.5) at 49ers:  Cardinals are somehow 3-2.  They can matchup with teams that throw the ball, but I don't see how they are going to be able to stop the 49ers running game.  And even if they can, Carson Palmer will throw multiple passes to 49ers DBs.  I don't see an upset here.

49ers 24 Cardinals 7

Redskins (+5.5) at Cowboys:  Does anyone know what to think of either of these two teams?  Both are inconsistent and both have glaring weaknesses, especially on defense.  The Skins are coming off a bye and could possibly move into first place with a win and an Eagles loss.  How bad does that sound?  PILLOW FIGHT!!!

Cowboys 24 Redskins 23

Monday, October 7, 2013

Week 6 Power Rankings Spreads

This does not include injuries or byes.  This only takes into account the first 5 weeks of the season.

Bears -18.5 vs Giants
Chiefs -14.5 vs Raiders
Eagles -1 at Buccaneers
Ravens -4.5 vs Packers
Browns -3.5 vs Lions
Vikings -1.5 vs Panthers
Jets -13.5 vs Steelers
Bengals -1 at Bills
Seahawks -7.5 vs Titans
Broncos -28 vs Jaguars
49ers -6 vs Cardinals
Saints -3.5 vs Patriots
Cowboys -11 vs Redskins
Colts -8.5 vs Chargers

Bears, Ravens, Browns, Jets, Saints, and Colts offer the most value according to this tool.  My first thoughts are that the Saints and Colts may be plays this week.

Power Rankings Through Week 5

The 3 parts of this formula includes the team's record, strength of schedule, and point differential.

1. Dinver Broncos 12.1
2. New Orleans Saints 11.1
3. Kansas City Chiefs 9.3
4. Indianapolis Colts 8.7
5. Seattle Seahawks 7.4
6. New England Patriots 4.6
7. San Francisco 49ers 4.1
8. Miami Dolphins 3.8
9. Baldimore Ravens 3.8
10. Tennessee Titans 3.0
11. Cincinnati Bengals 2.5
12. Chicago Bears 2.4
13. Green Bay Packers 2.2
14. Cleveland Browns 2.1
15. Detroit Lions 1.5
16. Arizona Cardinals 1.1
17. Dallas Cowboys 0.4
18. New York Jets -0.9
19. Buffalo Bills -1.5
20. Oakland Raiders -2.3
22. Philadelphia Eagles -2.6
23. San Diego Chargers -2.9
24. Houston Texans -3.1
25. Carolina Panthers -3.7
26. Minnesota Vikings -5.3
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.3
28. Washington Redskins -6.4
29. St. Louis Rams -6.5
30. Pittsburgh Steelers -11.4
31. Jacksonville Jaguars -12.8
32. New York Giants -13.0

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Week 6 Expected Lines

Giants (+8) at Bears
Raiders (+10) at Chiefs
Eagles (PK) at Buccaneers
Packers (-2.5) at Ravens
Lions (-2) at Browns
Panthers (-1) at Vikings
Rams (+9) at Texans
Steelers (PK) at Jets
Bengals (-5) at Bills
Titans (+12) at Seahawks
Jaguars (+26) at Broncos
Cardinals (+11) at 49ers
Saints (-3) at Patriots
Redskins (+4) at Cowboys
Colts (-3) at Chargers

Week 5

My Investments (4-5-1)

NONE

The Rest of Week 5 (26-24-2)

Chiefs (-3) 24 Titans 20
Dolphins (-2.5) 23 Ravens 20
Rams 20 Jaguars (+11) 16
Bengals (+1) 30 Patriots 26
Packers 27 Lions (+7.5) 23
Colts (+3) 23 Seahawks 17
Bears (+1.5) 27 Saints 24
Giants (-1.5) 34 Eagles 20
Panthers (-3) 27 Cardinals 19
Chargers 24 Raiders (+5) 21
Broncos 35 Cowboys (+9) 27
49ers 20 Texans (+4.5) 17
Falcons (-10) 31 Jets 13

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Week 5

I'll post the write-ups and other predictions tomorrow.

Thursdee Night:
Browns (-4) 23 Bills 13

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Patriots/Falcons Total

I'm officially investing in the UNDER between New England and Atlanta.  The number is currently at 51.5 and I officially made it a play on the Week 4 pick post.