The Mission to Become a Professional Gambler: August 2013

My Investments

Bengals (+3.5) at Bears

Cincinnati has been to the playoffs the past two years and they are a young, hungry, improving team that should take the next step this year. The defense is legit. The offense is young and getting better. The only thing that could hold them back this year is Dalton, but I think he makes slight improvements. The Bears are a team with tons of question marks. Lovie Smith and Brian Urlacher were the heart and soul of the defense. They’re gone. I think they’ll have a difficult time adjusting without those two. The offense should be better but they are extremely thin at WR and I expect them to have a difficult time against the Bengals’ pass rush. Like I said, Cincinnati is ready to take the next step and it starts with an impressive road win.

Bengals 28 Bears 13

Raiders (+7) at Colts

Oakland is bad. Terrell Pryor is bad. The WR are bad. The defense is bad. I think they are the worst team in the NFL. Indianapolis, like Minnesota, is a team that people expect to have a letdown year. With all the hype that Andrew Luck received before the draft last year, what makes you think that he won’t take a huge step forward this year? I think Indianapolis is a legit threat to Houston’s division crown and I think they start out at home with a blowout win.

Colts 34 Raiders 10

Eagles (+4.5) at Redskins

The Eagles were terrible last year but they were supposed to be a contender. I think they will surprise some people this year with how solid they are. McCoy is on the verge of a career year. However, the defense must play better than they did last year. Why is Washington only a slight favorite at home on Monday night? They have a young QB that everyone loves and a horse of RB in Alfred Morris. The defense gets back some key players and it should be better. My main concern with the Skins is RGIII. Bob didn't play one down during the preseason. I'm not really sold on him as a top tier QB and he should be extremely rusty. I think Vick makes a few big plays and McCoy has a monster game. Eagles outright.

Eagles 23 Redskins 10

The Rest of Week 1

Ravens (+8) at Broncos

This is a rematch game for Dinver after losing at home to Baldimore in the playoffs last year. Dinver looks like the top dog in the AFC this year while the Ravens are a team that is in transition. This team is younger and probably more talented than the team that won the Super Bowl last year, but I have a hard time thinking that the Ravens can lose Lewis and Reed off the D, and lose Boldin off the O, and still have enough leadership to contend this year, especially early in the season. Dinver is loaded on offense but their D scares me. They will be without Von Miller and they never really replaced Elvis Dumervil. The secondary is old. And I’m not crazy about their LB. This is Peyton Manning’s Colts without Freeney and Mathis. I think Dinver wins at home, but 8 is too much to be giving.

Broncos 24 Ravens 20

Patriots (-11.5) at Bills

New England will be without Aaron Hernandez and possibly Gronkowski; two vital parts of their 2012 offense. Amendola could replace Wes Welker’s productivity but Brady doesn’t have the same familiarity with Amendola that he did with Welker. Buffalo lost Kolb and top pick EJ Manuel to injuries and they will be starting undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel. I’m not a believer in undrafted rookies starting early in the season but Buffalo does have some things going for them in this game. The Bills will attempt to pound the ball with Spiller and Jackson and will only ask Tuel to “not lose the game.” New England has virtually no film on Tuel so, I’m assuming, they will try to blitz him. That is usually a good thing to do against young QBs, but if a few slants to Stevie Johnson or swing passes to Spiller end up in big plays, Buffalo can hang in there. New England is the class of the division but when the spread opens at 7 and moves 4.5 points because of a Kevin Kolb injury, I have my doubts. Patriots should win but this number is way too high.

Patriots 27 Bills 20

Titans (+7) at Steelers

I have no idea what to think of these teams and I don’t really like either of them. I’m not a believer in Jake Locker and Tennessee’s defense was 27^th in yards allowed and dead last in PPG allowed last year. You would think Pittsburgh would be able to capitalize on that but they are trying to replace their only real deep threat (Mike Wallace) and rookie RB Le’veon Bell is out. Pittsburgh defense is old and maybe Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene can run on them. If the spread moves off of 7, I’d favor the team getting the extra half point.

Steelers 24 Titans 17

Falcons (+3) at Saints

Atlanta is a team that wins every year and I’m not sure how and why. They are solid, don’t get me wrong. Their offense is explosive and they just added Steven Jackson, who should be a small upgrade over Michael Turner. The Falcons defense is mediocre at best and those are the defenses that the Saints feast off of, especially at home. The Saints are not getting as much credit as I believe that they should get. Payton is among the top coaches in the NFL and he should call a more balanced game that what we saw last year from the Saints. That dome will be insanely loud and I expect the Saints to put up a lot of points.

Saints 34 Falcons 24

Buccaneers (-3.5) at Jets

Tampa Bay is a decent team. I like Freeman and they have some weapons in Martin and Vincent Jackson. The defense is their weakness but I have no idea how the Jets can score on any team. They have zero explosive players and a 2^nd round QB, who should be amongst the worst starting QB in the league. The offense was bad last year and I actually think it could be worse this year. The only way the Jets stay in this game is if they get some turnovers and convert them into TD. I don’t see it happening. The Jets are bad.

Buccaneers 23 Jets 10

Chiefs (-4) at Jaguars

Any time a team that finished 2-14 is favored Week 1, you have to have your doubts. I like Kansas City as a team though. Andy Reid is a good coach and Alex Smith should provide stability at QB. The defense has been inconsistent in the past but they have some good players. I’m actually a lot higher on Jacksonville than most people. MJD and Shorts provide big play ability. The defense should be a liability again, but their offense could be better than expected. I have a feeling that all the love Kansas City is getting is unwarranted and I think Jacksonville is better than advertised. I’m taking the home dog to pull this one off.

Jaguars 28 Chiefs 24

Dolphins (PK) at Browns

Both of these teams intrigue me. Miami made some splashes in the offseason. Can Tannehill take the next step with Mike Wallace to throw to? Can the defense continue to improve? Cleveland has a very physical offensive line and a flat out stud RB in Trent Richardson. I also like Brandon Weeden as a possible breakout QB. I think both of these teams are slightly below average and with Cleveland being the home team, I’ll take Cleveland.

Browns 24 Dolphins 21

Seahawks (-3) at Panthers

The Seahawks are a Super Bowl contender and they are loaded on defense. They should be able to get Marshawn Lynch going and Russell Wilson should be able to make some plays against an average Carolina defense. I am a huge believer in Cam Newton but he has very few weapons. I think Carolina will keep it close, but you have to give me more than a FG to take Carolina in this game.

Seahawks 24 Panthers 19

Vikings (+5) at Lions

I know that there are always a few teams that make the playoffs and fail the following year (Detroit 10-6 to 4-12 last year). Why do the Vikings have to be that team? They added 2 first round picks on defense and added a 1^st round WR to go with the addition of Greg Jennings. I think this team is a legit playoff contender. Detroit, on the other hand, has their passing game. That’s it. Minnesota is inexperienced in the defensive backfield but Peterson should have a big day against Detroit and I don’t expect Ponder to have enough negative plays to mess it up.

Vikings 24 Lions 20

Cardinals (+4.5) at Rams

Arizona should have a much more stable QB this year with Carson Palmer. Fitzgerald should actually see the ball every once in a while. Their defense was 1^st in QB rating allowed last year and is a very underrated group. The Rams are a popular sleeper this year but I have my doubts. I’m not a Sam Bradford guy. They lost their work horse RB and don’t have many weapons. The defense should be really good again this year and I think the defense caries them to a low scoring victory at home.

Rams 19 Cardinals 16

Packers (+4) at 49ers

Both of these teams are loaded. Green Bay should have a great offense with Rodgers. The defense is the issue. San Francisco destroyed them last year in the playoffs. Green Bay has pretty much the same defense so the 49ers should be able to do it again, right? History shows that after a team gets destroyed on the ground, they usually respond well the next game. I am going to go with history and say the Packers defense plays much better because the 49ers should have a hard time stretching the field without Crabtree.

Packers 24 49ers 20

Giants (+3) at Cowboys

Can anyone figure out either of these teams? The Giants go on two magical runs in the playoffs but other than that, they’ve been around a .500 team. Dallas has tons of weapons on offense but they never seem to put it all together. The Giants defense is getting old and I think it will be a very disappointing season for the Giants. Dallas wins at home.

Cowboys 27 Giants 17

Texans (+4) at Chargers

Houston is a good team but I think they take a major step back this year. Matt Schaub can’t get this team over the hump. Foster is banged up. They still don’t have much help for Andre Johnson. The defense is legit but the offense isn’t explosive enough. The Chargers are a team that is in full rebuild mode and Phillip Rivers looks like he can’t throw the ball anymore. They aren’t strong in any aspect of the game. I don’t like either of these teams so I’m taking the team that gets the extra half point if the spread moves off of 4.

Texans 24 Chargers 20

The Mission to Become a Professional Gambler

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Week 2 Expected Lines

Week 1